Urban Air Mobility is to become a reality for all… according to the new report
The Global Market Outlook leverages data on 1,800 cities on the UN’s World Urbanization Prospects database, 1,000 airports, and over 27,000 civil helicopters currently in operation.
“The Global Market Outlook furthers the excitement and momentum we have seen in collaborating with our customers and municipal partners worldwide,” said Johann Bordais, CEO of Eve Air Mobility. “Today, the UAM market benefits from urban growth, higher traffic congestion, and a positive shift towards sustainable mobility. Demand for UAM is strong and marks the beginning of a major shift in how people will move and live in cities worldwide.”
Transporting Three Billion Passengers by 2045
The topline numbers from the report show an estimated in-service vehicle fleet of 30,000 eVTOLs by 2045, supporting an estimated three billion passengers, resulting in potential revenue of $280 billion.
These numbers are huge, and wouldn’t we all like to see the industry go in this direction. But what is the actual use case? As I attend conferences around the industry that look at eVTOL, UAM, AAM, IAM – pick your terminology – we still need to be stagnating on the use case that will drive this type of revenue. An eVTOL can only carry a few passengers, which translates to a lot of flights that need to be at a price point that more than just the ‘rich and famous’ can support. I’ve heard a few industry experts propose this needs to ultimately be the price of an Uber.
According to the report, the critical use cases to drive this growth include urban point-to-point (42%), airport shuttle (38%), tourism, medical services, corporate, private and charter. Urban congestion is one of the key factors supporting the need for alternative means of transportation. The 2022 United Nations World Population Prospects points to over two billion more people living in cities by 2050 than the situation today.
Where will it happen?
Eve ranks the opportunities for growth as follows with associated projections for eVTOL fleet deployment by 2045 – Asia-Pacific (41%), North America (29%), Europe (17%), Latin America (7%), Middle East (4%) and Africa (2%). The driving forces across the regions vary from growth of megacities to sustainability and innovation, although regulatory challenges cannot be overlooked as an impact to actual time to market. Timing is another important factor when considering these projections, as the percentages alone cannot be the only measurement. Asia-Pacific is leading with progress and ultimately deployment figures. Although the Middle East has a smaller amount of eVTOLs in use, the regions drive for innovation will likely move them up the scale for early adoption.
How do we get there?
The projections look positive, but implementation still faces many challenges that need to be addressed for them to become a reality. According to the report, the key challenges include:
- Safe operations: High safety is a non-negotiable
- Regulatory approval: A comprehensive but accessible regulatory environment
- Air traffic management (ATM): Airspace integration and future uncrewed operations are two areas where ATM will play a key role
- Ecosystem: Use of existing heliport infrastructure to start
- Battery technology: Higher battery densities
- Public acceptance
I’d like to comment on two of these items, beginning with the ATM infrastructure. Looking at the history of drones entering crewed airspace, this topic is not as easy as it sounds. Different regions are addressing this topic with drones in different manners – the role of the ANSP, data provision, BVLOS, etc, etc. Although eVTOLs will have a pilot onboard for the foreseeable future (my opinion), just saying they can work with today’s ATM infrastructure is not as easy as it sounds. Eve has a good start here with it’s Urban Air Traffic Management concept, but we know the reality is the whole industry won’t use one vendor’s solution. This needs to play out further.
Lastly, public acceptance. When will the flying public feel confident in using this form of transportation? This is truly more of the ‘when’ than the ‘if’. But to get there, I believe the industry has a huge level of market awareness/education work to be done.
Check out the report, there’s some great information there. Too much to cover in this article.
